Current climate changes in the Arctic
Korolev A.A.
Student of National Research University BelSU
S198pZ563@yandex.ru
Summary
The properties of climate fluctuations are described, obtained as a
result of a special statistical analysis of observational data from
the world meteorological network of stations, taking into account
the peculiarities of the northern regions. Using the example of air
temperature, free and forced fluctuations of the characteristics of
the climate system in their interaction are considered. New ideas
about the structure of fluctuations and possible causes of climate
changes have been formulated. A statistical model of periodic
nonstationarity of climate is proposed for forecasting climate
fluctuations for two decades, and a model for seasonal and
monthly meteorological forecasts with an annual lead time is
proposed. The practical significance of predictive developments is
especially great in the harsh climatic conditions of the north,
where the climate is one of the limiting factors of the industrial
development of the northern regions.
Key words: climate change, time scale
The Arctic Council, an international organization of eight Arctic
states, designed to promote cooperation in the field of
environmental protection and sustainable development of the
circumpolar regions, pays great attention to climate change in the
Arctic. In 2000, the Arctic Council launched the preparation of the
Arctic Climate Impact Assessment (ACIA) report. It was a joint
project of two working groups of the Arctic Council: the Arctic
Monitoring and Assessment Program (AMAP) and the
Conservation of Arctic Floraand Fauna (CAFF). The result of the
implementation of the project was a thousand-page scientific
report, prepared by the end of 2004 and published by the
University of Cambridge [1]. 18 chapters of the report contained
detailed information on the recorded changes in the atmosphere,
cryosphere and hydrosphere, in ozone and ultraviolet radiation, in
ecosystems of land and water. The state of forestry and
agriculture, fishing, reindeer husbandry, hunting in a changing
climate was assessed. The health of the population, the prospects
of indigenous peoples and the preservation of their ways of life
under the influence of the ongoing changes were discussed. UDC
551.582 (98) +551.585
Current climate change in the Arctic: results of a new assessment
report of the Arctic Council Yu. S. Tsaturov, Ph.D., Federal Service
of Russia for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring A.
V. Klepikov, Ph.D. Antarctic Research Institute "
The article presents the results of the new report of the Arctic
Council "Snow, water, ice and permafrost in the Arctic", dedicated
to the assessment of the current situation in the Arctic
cryosphere. Climate change has become a major problem in the
Arctic over the past decades. The consequences of climate
change, including damage to buildings, roads and pipelines,
reduced opportunities for hunting, fishing, reindeer husbandry,
negative impact on the health of the population of the northern
territories, require the development of an adaptation strategy.
Key words: Arctic cryosphere, climate change in the Arctic, global
climate research, ground-based hydrometric networks.
Received 12/05/2012
The results of ASIA showed that there is a tendency for the
temperature to rise, reaching almost 3 ° C over a 30-year period
(1971-2000) in some regions (Alaska, Northern Canada, Siberia).
Although the magnitude of the observed trends varied within a
particular region and some regions experienced cooling, the
overall trend for the Arctic over the past few decades has shown
warming, almost twice the average global temperature rise on the
planet. For 1971-2000. precipitation increased in most of the
Arctic regions by 10% to 30%, sea ice area decreased by 10–15%,
and land snow cover decreased by about 10%. Most glaciers in
the Arctic were losing mass. In most of the Arctic, the
temperature of the upper permafrost layer has increased by 1-2 °
C over 30-40 years. The duration of the freezing period of Arctic
lakes and rivers has decreased, and the runoff of Arctic rivers has
increased in recent years. Given the importance of the results of
the ASIA assessment and due to the fact that the projects of the
International Polar Year (IPY-2007/08) provided a lot of new data,
the Arctic Council decided to carry out a similar assessment in
order to track changes in the Arctic and Subarctic already in the
first decade of the 19th century. ... It was decided to focus on 77.
Contemporary Arctic Climate Change: Results of a New Arctic
Council Assessment Report on Cryospheric Changes. The term
"cryosphere" refers to a part of the earth's surface that
periodically freezes or is constantly frozen. This includes snow,
frozen ground, river and lake ice, glaciers, ice caps, ice sheets,
and sea ice. The cryosphere is like a skeleton of the physical
environment of the Arctic. It is an integral part of the climate
system and affects the climate at both the regional and global
levels. At the same time, parts of the cryosphere are extremely
important for people living in the Arctic. Snow and glaciers
provide the population with fresh water, river and lake ice provide
mobility, sea ice enables sea animals to hunt and fish. The
observed changes in the sea ice cover of the Arctic Ocean, in the
Greenland ice sheet, in ice caps and glaciers, in the snow cover
and permafrost of the Arctic over the past 10-15 years are
dramatic and obviously diverge from the results of observations,
which were carried out in the XIX-XX centuries. That is why the
assessment of changes in the cryosphere has become the main
task of the new climate project of the Arctic Council. AMAP, as
well as the International Arctic Science Committee (IASC), World
climate research program through the Climate and Cryosphere
Project (CliC) and the International Arctic Social Science
Association (IASSA). Note that since the start of the ASIA project
in 2000, AMAP has been actively involved in the generalization
and assessment of information on natural climate variability, on
anthropogenic climatic changes, on the impact of global, regional
and local climate changes and ultraviolet radiation on the Arctic
environment. AMAP has now become one of the leading
organizations on these issues. According to the SWIPA project, a
new comprehensive assessment of the state of the cryosphere in
the Arctic and Subarctic for the period from 2008 to 2011 is to be
made. against a backdrop of climate change including the
Greenland ice sheet, mountain glaciers and ice caps, sea ice and
freshwater ice, permafrost and snow cover. It was planned to
summarize modern scientific knowledge to recreate the picture of
the ongoing changes and to develop mechanisms for adaptation
to the challenges associated with climate change in the Arctic and
Subarctic. An important part of the SWIPA project is the
assessment of the socio-economic consequences of the impact of
climate change and the proposal of measures for adaptation to
them. A key moment for the preparation of a new assessment of
the state of the cryosphere in the northern regions was the
inclusion of data obtained in IPY-2007/08. The SWIPA project
consisted of three sub-projects:
“Sea ice in a changing climate”, “Greenland ice sheet in a
changing climate” and “Climate change in the terrestrial
cryosphere”, which, in turn, consisted of four modules: “Snow”,
“Permafrost”, “Glaciers and ice caps ”,“ Ice of rivers and lakes ”.
A new assessment report of the Arctic Council on the impact of
climate change on snow, water, ice and permafrost in the Arctic
was published at the end of 2011 [2]. Let us consider the main
conclusions contained in the assessment report of SWIPA and
related publications [3, 5]. The Arctic is getting warmer. The last
six years (2005–2010) analyzed in the report have been the
warmest period in the Arctic on record. The surface air
temperature in the Arctic since 2005 has exceeded the average
temperature for any five-year period since the start of
measurements (about 1880). The Arctic is warming twice as fast
as in the world as a whole. Data from studies of lacustrine
sediments, annual tree rings and ice cores show that summer
temperatures in the Arctic are higher than at any time in the past
2000 years. Unprecedented anomalies in ocean currents were
recorded, including a greater influx of warm waters from the
Pacific Ocean into the Arctic Ocean. These changes are the main
driving forces behind changes in the Arctic cryosphere. Pointing
to the cause of warming in the Arctic, the authors of SWIPA refer
to the conclusions of the 4th assessment report of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). They indicate
that "... with a high degree of probability (over 90%), it can be
argued that the increase in concentrations of anthropogenic
greenhouse gases is responsible for most of global warming since
the mid-20th century." The two components of the Arctic
cryosphere - snow and sea ice - interact with the climate system
to accelerate warming. The largest increase in temperature in the
surface layer of the atmosphere was noted in autumn in areas
where sea ice melts by the end of summer. It is assumed that the
sea absorbs more solar energy during the summer due to the lack
of ice cover. Additional energy is released in the form of heat in
the fall, further contributing to the warming of the lower
atmosphere in the Arctic. On land, the number of days with snow
cover changed mainly in spring. Early snowmelt is accelerated by
earlier and more intense warming of the land surface, which is no
longer snow-capped. These processes are called feedbacks.
Feedback for sea ice has been predicted by climate scientists in
the past, but strong evidence for this was 78 Arctic: Ecology and
Economics # 4 (8), 2012 Contemporary Arctic Climate Change
Contemporary Arctic climate change has only been observed in
the Arctic over the past five years. Other potential feedback
mechanisms have also been found. They can make changes in
the speed and even direction of climate change and associated
changes in the cryosphere. Eight of these mechanisms should
accelerate warming, and only one - cooling [3]. The intensity of
the feedback mechanisms of the cryosphere and climate has not
yet been quantitatively determined both within the Arctic and
around the world. This entails significant uncertainty in predicting
changes in the cryosphere and the Arctic natural environment.
The extent and duration of snow and sea ice cover have
decreased significantly throughout the Arctic. The area of the
Arctic land covered with snow at the beginning of summer has
decreased since 1966 by 18%. Coastal Alaska and northern
Scandinavia have seen a significant reduction in the number of
snow-covered days per year. These changes are largely due to
the earlier melting of snow in winter. The depth of snow cover
decreased in the North American part of the Arctic, but increased
in the north of Russia. Over the past two to three decades,
permafrost temperatures have increased by 2 ° C, especially in
colder regions (typical permafrost temperatures range from –16 °
C to nearly 0 °, depending on location). The depth of the soil layer
above the permafrost, which thaws annually in the summer
months, has increased in Scandinavia, the Russian Arctic, west of
the Urals and inland Alaska. Southern border of permafrost in
Russia in 1970-2005. retreated 30-80 km to the north and almost
130 km over the past 50 years in the province of Quebec. Ice on
lakes and rivers breaks open earlier than was observed in the
past. The study of bottom sediments of lakes in the high-latitude
Arctic indicates that the duration of the existence of ice cover on
some lakes has significantly decreased over the past 100 years.
Large ice packs melt faster. The total loss of mass of the
Greenland ice sheet, according to new estimates, increased from
about 50 billion tons per year in 1995-2000. up to 200 billion tons
in 2004-2008. Over the past 100 years, nearly all glaciers and ice
caps have shrunk in size. The rate of ice loss has increased in
most regions, but especially in Arctic Canada and southern
Alaska. The total loss of mass from glaciers and ice caps in the
Arctic has exceeded perhaps 150 billion tons per year over the
past decade, which is comparable to the estimates of losses from
the Greenland ice sheet. The decrease in the area of sea ice in
the Arctic over the past decade has been faster than in the
previous twenty years. The decrease in sea ice area is happening
faster than predicted by the models used in the preparation of the
4th IPCC Assessment Report. The area of sea ice (perennial ice)
that has not melted in summer has been equal to or close to
record lows each year since 2001. This value is now one third less
than the average for sea ice from 1979 to 2000. New
observations show that the average sea ice thickness has
decreased and the ice cover is mainly represented by younger
and thinner ice. Climate models predict even greater changes.
The average temperatures in the Arctic in the autumn and winter
months, even if it is possible to reduce the scale of carbon dioxide
emissions into the atmosphere over the next decade, will still rise
by 3-6 ° C by 2080. However, the climate models used in the
preparation of the SWIPA report will not included the impact of
the response of the cryosphere system, which can result in
additional emissions of greenhouse gases from the Arctic
environment. Precipitation in the form of snow and rain is
predicted to increase throughout the year, but especially in
winter. Despite this, the Arctic is expected to become drier in the
summer. This is due to the fact that a higher air temperature will
cause more water evaporation, snow will start to melt earlier, and
the water regime will change. With increasing precipitation in the
form of snow, all forecasts indicate that the height of maximum
snow cover in winter will increase in many regions. The largest
increase (15-30% by 2050) is expected in Siberia. But even in this
case, the duration of the snow cover by 2050 will decrease by a
maximum of 10-20%. Models also predict that the permafrost will
continue to melt. It is predicted that sea-ice thickness and sea-ice
extent in summer will continue to decline in the coming decades,
although significant fluctuations will be observed from year to
year. It is assumed that by the middle of the century the Arctic
Ocean will be almost completely free of ice during the summer.
This means that there will no longer be a permanent presence of
thick perennial ice. Climate models predict a 10-30% decline in
mountain glaciers and ice caps by the end of the century.
The Greenland ice sheet is expected to be melting faster than it is
currently, but there are currently no models that can accurately
predict how these and other Arctic continental ice packs will
respond to projected climate changes. This is due to the fact that
there is still no complete understanding of the dynamics of ice
and the complex interactions between the ocean, snow, ice and
the atmosphere. 79 Contemporary Arctic Climate Change: Results
from a New Arctic Council Assessment Report Changes in the
cryosphere are causing fundamental changes in Arctic
ecosystems. Changes in the thickness and structure of the snow
cover affect the soil, plants and animals. Some species, such as
the short-billed bean goose, will benefit from reduced snow cover
in spring. However, animals that graze in snow-covered pastures
will suffer if the rains in the winter create an ice crust on the
snow. This phenomenon is increasingly seen in northern Canada
and Scandinavia. Less snow storage and faster snow melting are
the cause of summer drought in forests, wetlands and lakes that
feed on melt water. Melting permafrost also leads to drainage and
desiccation of wetlands in some places and their appearance in
others. The disappearance of ice cover from rivers, lakes and seas
will change the animal and plant communities in the aquatic
environment. The disappearance of large areas covered by sea
ice will cause great ecological damage to species adapted to life
on ice, including polar bears, seals, walruses, narwhals and some
microbial communities. Many animals, including bowhead whales,
depend on small crustaceans that inhabit the sea ice. A given
food source will change if the ice boundary recedes. Such
changes in ecosystems will have a direct impact on water supply,
fish and forest supplies, traditional food and grazing lands used
by the inhabitants of the Arctic territories. For example, it was
assumed that populations of subarctic and arctic fish species
(including valuable commercial fish) could change if the sea ice
receded. Uncertainty about the supply of living natural resources
makes planning for the future difficult. Melting permafrost can
have a positive impact on forests in areas where there is enough
water for trees to grow, but insect pests are causing increasing
problems. The numbers of some preyed animals, such as seals
and walruses, decline as habitats change. Others migrate to new
habitats, so hunters have to travel long distances.
Cryosphere changes affect livelihoods and living conditions in the
Arctic. Access to the northern territories by sea is facilitated in the
summer, when the sea ice disappears, which creates conditions
for more active shipping and economic activity. Offshore oil and
gas activities will benefit from a longer period when the sea is not
covered with ice, but threats from icebergs may increase due to
an increase in their number. The shrinking sea ice is creating
challenges for local people who use the ice to travel and hunt as
they have to travel long distances on precarious ice in more
hazardous conditions. On land, access to many places will
become more difficult as winter ice roads thaw earlier and later
freeze, and as permafrost degrades. Industrial exploitation
associated with winter roads will require the concentration of
heavy-duty traffic.
transport during the coldest period of the year. Shorter periods
when ice and snow roads can be used will greatly affect local
communities that use land transportation to transport goods in
order to maintain reasonable prices for goods and ensure
profitability, especially in northern Canada and Russia. Some
mainland areas are becoming more accessible to mining as
glaciers and ice caps recede. Melting permafrost in some regions
will increase the risk of deformation of buildings, roads, runways
and other technical structures, which will also be facilitated by
poor design quality in the past. Buildings and other infrastructure
are exposed to risks associated with increased snow load and
flooding resulting from ice jams on rivers or sudden discharges of
water from glacial lakes. More than 60% of the Arctic coastline is
sealed and protected by ice. If fast ice breaks down earlier and
permafrost degrades, rapid erosion can occur. Along the coastline
of the Laptev and Beaufort Seas, the recorded rate of retreat of
the coastline inland has reached more than two meters per year.
In Alaska, some Inuit settlements are preparing to evacuate in the
event of a sea attack. In the short term, the increasing melting of
glaciers creates new opportunities for hydropower, with potential
benefits for industry. In the longer term, the amount of melt water
will decrease as the glacier area shrinks, which is likely to have a
negative impact on electricity production. Melting ice and snow
will release pollutants that have been stored in them for years,
allowing pollutants to re-enter the environment. The exposure of
humans and higher mammals to contaminants that accumulate in
the food chain may be even greater. The growing accessibility of
the Arctic creates new economic opportunities. Cruise tourism is
growing in popularity. More and more people are coming to see
the impact of climate change on Arctic glaciers, such as the
Ilulisat glacier in Greenland. The increased flow of tourists can
become a problem for the traditional way of life of local
communities and the level of 80 Arctic: ecology and economy
No.4 (8), 2012 Modern climate change in the Arctic Modern
climate change in the Arctic for the provision of services, as well
as increase requirements for the efficiency of infrastructure (for
example, aviation services, navigation equipment and other
security measures). The disappearance of arctic nature and
landscape changes could have a negative impact on the tourism
industry in the long term.
Changes in the Arctic cryosphere have an impact on the global
climate and ocean level. Shrinking, snow and ice surfaces,
reflecting a significant part of the light, give way to darker
surfaces of the earth or ocean, which absorb more solar energy.
This enhances the warming of the soil and air. There is evidence
that similar processes occur in the Arctic Ocean as sea ice
recedes, as well as on land, where snow begins to melt earlier.
This could cause a significant increase in methane and carbon
dioxide emissions in the Arctic due to heating of soil and
freshwater systems and the melting of permafrost soils on the
seabed. The cumulative impact of these effects on the global
climate is not yet predictable. Freshwater inputs into the Arctic
Ocean from all major sources, which include river runoff, snow /
rainfall, melting glaciers and ice caps, and the Greenland ice
sheet, are increasing. According to calculations, an additional
7,700 km3 have entered the Arctic Ocean in recent years, which
is equivalent to covering the entire territory of Australia one
meter deep. There is a risk of changes in the system of major
ocean currents that affect climate on a continental scale. Melting
glaciers and ice sheets are the largest contributors to ocean level
rise. Arctic glaciers, ice caps and the Greenland ice sheet
provided 1.3 mm of the total annual rise in the level of the World
Ocean by 3.1 mm in 2003-2008, which is more than 40%. Thus,
the contribution of the Arctic to the rise in the level of the World
Ocean turned out to be much greater than previously assumed.
There is great uncertainty in the estimates of the future level of
the World Ocean. Recent model calculations show an increase of
0.9–1.6 m by 2100. Compared to that observed in 1990. Changes
in the Arctic cryosphere will have an impact on the entire world.
Rising sea levels are one of the most serious consequences of the
cryosphere change for society. Higher mean sea levels and more
destructive storms will have a direct negative impact on millions
of people living in low-lying coastal areas. Rising sea levels will
increase the risk of flooding in densely populated coastal cities
such as Shanghai and New York. On the other hand, economic
activities on a global scale can benefit from cryospheric changes
in the Arctic, for example, the opening of transpolar sea routes
across the Arctic Ocean will shorten the distance between Europe
and the Pacific by 40% for ships compared to current routes,
which will reduce air emissions and energy consumption. Some
unique arctic animal species, such as narwhals, will face specific
threats when cryospheric changes occur. Decreases in
cryospheric habitats such as sea ice, wetlands in permafrost
regions will impact migratory mammals and birds around the
world. These negative impacts on biodiversity are of global
concern. Urgent adaptation is needed at all levels. Changes in the
cryosphere primarily affect the population at the local level, so
local communities will be forced to develop strategies to respond
to emerging risks. At the national and regional levels, adaptation
requires leadership from governments and international
organizations to enact new laws and regulations. For example, a
new fishing regime will be needed as fish stocks change. New
standards need to be developed for construction, especially in
regions where permafrost is melting. States will have to invest in
transport infrastructure due to the shorter period of use of winter
roads. Search and rescue operations will need to change in
response to increasing traffic and risks at sea, and accurate
forecasts of weather and sea conditions will be needed to ensure
the safety of shipping. Arctic communities are mobile and will
actively respond to changes in the cryosphere. However, the high
rate of change can surpass the ability to adapt. Knowledge and
research is needed to predict how living conditions might change
and to assess possible adaptation options. In this regard, the
interests of the indigenous population require close attention.
Changes in the cryosphere are driving change not only in the
Arctic. Cryosphere and climate change is taking place in the
context of social change, which can present even greater
challenges. When developing adaptation strategies, the totality of
social, climatic and cryospheric changes must be taken into
account. A rapid reduction in greenhouse gas emissions is
needed. Climate change is an urgent and potentially inevitable
threat to human communities. Global climate studies using
modeling show that dramatic and widespread reductions in
greenhouse gas emissions are required to ensure that global
average temperatures rise within 2 ° C above pre-industrial
levels. 81 Contemporary Arctic Climate Change: Results of a New
Assessment Report of the Arctic Council Combating
anthropogenic climate change is a common pressing problem for
the world community, requiring global action and international
participation. In accordance with the ASIA report [1], the ministers
of the Arctic Council recognized that timely, weighed and
coordinated action is needed with regard to global emissions.
They endorsed a number of policy recommendations to limit
greenhouse gas emissions and adopted strategies that address
greenhouse gas emissions and limit them in the long term to
levels consistent with the ultimate goal of the United Nations
Framework Convention on climate change. The main findings of
the SWIPA report, in particular on the high and growing rate of
change in cryospheric conditions in the Arctic, once again
emphasize the need for stronger urgent measures in this
direction. Uncertainty can be reduced by ongoing research. The
results of ongoing monitoring, research and modeling indicate
with a high degree of confidence that significant changes are
taking place in the Arctic cryosphere that will continue in the
future. Some of the changes are in line with forecasts, but the sea
ice response has been faster than predicted just five years ago.
Even so, a significant amount of uncertainty remains, especially
regarding the timing of future changes and the impact of
interactions (responses) between the cryosphere and climate
system components. More reliable observing networks are
needed to reduce the uncertainty of future estimates.
Measurements from satellites and aircraft have improved the
ability to observe certain elements of the Arctic cryosphere, such
as the spread of sea ice and snow cover. Monitoring other key
elements of the cryosphere, such as sea ice thickness, snow
depth, permafrost and glaciers, requires ground based
observations. equipment [4]. Many ground-based hydrometric
networks for observing snow cover, freshwater ice and
precipitation have been reduced or completely lost, and objects
for observing sea ice, main ice and physical properties of snow
are located at large distances from each other. Observing
networks should be expanded to obtain reliable data on the
cryosphere, which are necessary for monitoring, improving
models and assessing the quality of satellite observations. The
report identifies the most important questions to which there is
still no answer:
• What will happen to the Arctic Ocean and its ecosystems if
melting ice and increased river flow are added to the freshwater
flow?
• How fast can the Greenland ice sheet melt?
• How will changes in the Arctic cryosphere affect the global
climate?
• How will the changes affect the population and economy of the
Arctic?
Answering these questions requires improved observational
networks. A better understanding of the complex interactions of
the physical, chemical and biological environment in the Arctic is
needed. There is a lack of systematically collected information on
the impact of cryospheric changes on human society. Thus, the
report Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic confirmed
the importance of climate-induced changes in snow cover, sea
and land ice in the Arctic and their profound implications for local,
regional and global communities. The combination of the impact
of the changing cryosphere, climate change and the rapid
development of the Arctic creates political challenges for the
Arctic communities, as well as for the world community. The
traditional way of life is most vulnerable to changes in the
cryosphere. Collaboration and coordinated efforts at all levels are
needed to respond to change and increase the adaptive capacity
of Arctic ecosystems and populations.
The report Snow, Water, Ice and Permafrost in the Arctic will be
used to create a new version of the Assessment Report on
Climate Change and Their Consequences in the Territory of the
Russian Federation, which is currently being prepared by
Roshydromet and the Russian Academy of Sciences. The
conclusions of the SWIPA report are also important when planning
specific activities of the “Strategic Action Program for the
Protection of the Environment of the Arctic Zone of the Russian
Federation”.
Literature
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Miller and S. J. Barry, 2011.
3. Callaghan T. V., Johansson M., Key J. et al. Feedbacksand
interactions: From the Arctic cryosphere to the climate system //
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4. Key J., Bøggild C. E., Sharp M. et al. Observationalneeds and
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